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Robert Lucas Jr.
8 quotes
“I do not see how one can look at figures like these without seeing them representing possibilities. Is there some action a government of India could take that would lead the Indian economy to grow like Indonesia's or Egypt's? If so, what exactly? If not, what is it about the "nature of India" that makes it so? The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else.”
Robert Lucas Jr. (1937–2023) first seen 1988 wikiquote, CC BY-SA 4.0 source
Recorded in: Robert E. Lucas, "On the Mechanics of Economic Development." Journal of Monetary Economics. 22 July, 1988, pp. 5: On economic growth
“So I am skeptical about the argument that the subprime mortgage problem will contaminate the whole mortgage market, that housing construction will come to a halt, and that the economy will slip into a recession. Every step in this chain is questionable and none has been quantified. If we have learned anything from the past 20 years it is that there is a lot of stability built into the real economy.”
Robert Lucas Jr. (1937–2023) first seen 2007 wikiquote, CC BY-SA 4.0 source
Recorded in: Robert E. Lucas, "Mortgages and Monetary Policy", The Wall Street Journal WEDNESDAY, September 19, 2007
“I guess everyone is a Keynesian in a foxhole.”
Robert Lucas Jr. (1937–2023) first seen 2008 wikiquote, CC BY-SA 4.0 source
Recorded in: Robert E. Lucas, to Justin Fox, quoted in Bob Lucas on the comeback of Keynesianism (2008).
“For policy, the central fact is that Keynesian policy recommendations have no sounder basis, in a scientific sense, than recommendations of non-Keynesian economists or, for that matter, non-economists.”
Robert Lucas Jr. (1937–2023) first seen 1978 wikiquote, CC BY-SA 4.0 source
Recorded in: Robert Lucas, Jr. and Thomas J. Sargent, "After Keynesian macroeconomics", After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment (1978).
Also quoted by: Thomas J. Sargent
“The Keynesian Revolution was, in the form in which it succeeded in the United States, a revolution in method. This was not Keynes’s intent, nor is it the view of all of his most eminent followers. Yet if one does not view the revolution in this way, it is impossible to account for some of its most important features.”
Robert Lucas Jr. (1937–2023) said by 2023 at the latest wikiquote, CC BY-SA 4.0 source
“A key element in all Keynesian models is a ‘trade-off between inflation and real output: the higher is the inflation rate; the higher is output (or equivalently, the lower is the rate of unemployment).”
Robert Lucas Jr. (1937–2023) said by 2023 at the latest wikiquote, CC BY-SA 4.0 source
“The main development I want to discuss has already occurred: Keynesian economics is dead [maybe ‘disappeared’ is a better term]. I don’t know exactly when this happened but it is true today and it wasn’t true two years ago. This is a sociological not an economic observation, so the evidence for it is sociological. For example, you cannot find a good, under 40 economist who identifies himself and his work as ‘Keynesian’. Indeed, people even take offense if referred to in this way. At research seminars, people don’t take Keynesian theorizing seriously any more—the audience starts to whisper and giggle to one another. Leading journals aren’t getting Keynesian papers submitted any more.”
Robert Lucas Jr. (1937–2023) first seen 1980 wikiquote, CC BY-SA 4.0 source
Recorded in: Robert E. Lucas, "The Death of Keynesian Economics", in Issues and Ideas (Winter 1980).
“In the present decade, the U.S. economy has undergone its first major depression since the 1930’s, to the accompaniment of inflation rates in excess of 10 percent per annum. These events have been transmitted [...] to other advanced countries and in many cases have been amplified. These events did not arise from a reactionary reversion to outmoded, 'classical' principles of tight money and balanced budgets. On the contrary, they were accompanied by massive government budget deficits and high rates of monetary expansion, policies which, although bearing an admitted risk of inflation, promised according to modern Keynesian doctrine rapid real growth and low rates of unemployment. That these predictions were wildly incorrect and that the doctrine on which they were fundamentally flawed are now simple matters of fact, involving no novelties of economic theory. The task now [...] is to sort through the wreckage, determining which features of that remarkable intellectual event called the Keynesian Revolution can be salvaged and put to use and which others must be discarded.”
Robert Lucas Jr. (1937–2023) first seen 1994 wikiquote, CC BY-SA 4.0 source
Recorded in: As contained in The Rational Expectations Revolution: Readings From the Front Line, Preston J. Miller, MIT Press (reprint 1994), pp. 5-6